Musings about Life and Investments

https://secure.fundsupermart.com/fsm/article/view/rcms207880/betting-on-an-oil-price-rebound-don-t-buy-uso-buy-these-oil-etfs-instead A good article about USO, USL and DBO. 

Much has been written about how to be at the top. It is not just about money, but being successful in everything I do. I've been doing things in my bucket list, step by step, day by day. I like to create things, to build things that impact society for the better. For this reason I have to take a path that fewer people thread. It is not easy and requires a lot of guts and energy. Whatever I do, I try very hard to be the best at my field, be it investing, advisory etc. While others are having their happy hours, I'm often poring through reports, learning new skills etc. It will bear fruits over time, I hope. https://thesmartlocal.com/read/gorgeous-singapore-homes/ I used to take long walks in Sentosa Cove and admire the houses. I'm a huge fan of architecture and had always wanted to be one. But my passion for finance got the better of me. I always loved living by the sea. I grew up in Marine Drive, on the 15th floor, overlooking the sea. I could see the Indonesian i

The Real Economy I have been trying to solve the puzzle based on three scenarios: a V shaped recovery, U shaped and L shaped economic trajectory. In the real economy, a V shape recovery appears a write off. economies worldwide have started to shut down in 2Q 2020. The lockdown may extend into 3Q. By then you either test the entire population or develop a vaccine. The first option appears more plausible. As long as a few asypmtomatic people are spreading the disease, we will quickly have a problem. Assuming the western countries like the US open their economy too early, there will be repeated infection waves. Therefore 3Q could see more defaults by SMEs. Job losses could reach 20% in many countries. Emerging countries may decide not to lock down their economies because it causes a recession and the governments need to provide handouts. These countries have sovereign and corporate debt issued in USD to enjoy a lower interest rate. But if the money printing leads to currency ins

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1Gi_ZUP2Bg&t=29s One of the most important thing to muster if you wanna make money in the stock markets, is "the stock market is NOT the economy". It is a forecasting machine. If you keep watching mainstream news, you will invest only when the news is good. There are two styles of investing. 1) buy when stock prices / indices are sufficiently cheap so that you have a margin of safety. There is a whole lot of literature on this. Some use purely quantitative methods, e.g. debt asset ratio, PE. Some use qualitative as well, e.g. wide moats, integrity of management. This is Warren Buffett's style. But remember you need patience to reap the benefits because cheap can get cheaper. Expensive can get even more so. Second style is to use Value + Momentum. Something is cheap, but you won't buy it because sentiments are poor. Instead you wait for a trend in your favour, just like a wind surfer. She doesn't question "wh

This is the S&P500. The turnaround may have come. There is a new channel on the way up, also a double bottom. The projected upside is about 15%. I am cautiously optimistic now, buying along the way since 6 April.  The lower channel must hold otherwise there's a breakdown. Valuation wise the US is at the median level in terms of Cyclically Adjusted PE. I'm still looking at the usual favourites.... Franklin US Opportunities, UBS CHina A Opportunities, REITs, like Ascott Trust, Cromwell REIT, EC World, Manulife REIT, OCBC Bank, Bank of America, Johnson & Johnson, McDonalds, NIke, Ping An INsurance, Yum Brands, Yum China, Alibaba, Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, Tencent, Veeva Systems, Meituan Dianping, IHF the healthcare ETF, energy companies like ROyal Dutch Shell. Buy gradually, in my opinion just use up 40% of your capital and balance keep as cash or investment grade bond funds... Alternatives, Gold. There is still a risk of a complete breakdown of the chart

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cw9Rb6VIJ9o This channel, Fallible has been pretty accurate in the last 2 years that I track. It is extremely bearish and feels that the markets have a lot lower to go. Bear traps can go up a lot. From my calculations, it may even rebound by another 8 to 10%. But it is likely to retest the lows seen on 23 March. The economy will likely be smashed like never seen before. In fact, it is likely to be worse than the Great Depression. It is comparable only to WWII and WWI. Why? Because demand and consumption is totally smashed. A BCA report estimated that the lock downs around the world will be in July 2020. That's another three more months. If you need the report, please give me your email address and I'll forward to you. The US is still the world's biggest economy and BCA estimates that the lock down nationwide will end on the 3rd week of July. By the third week of July, some SMEs, restaurants that we are familiar with will have gon

https://www.investors.com/news/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-sells-delta-stock-southwest-stock-coronavirus/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo From the article above, the great investor seems negative on airline shares. It is a difficult enough being a cyclical business. Competition is ferocious. Now with this virus, air travel may take a long time to recover as people travel less. https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-coronavirus-outbreak-stock-market-volatility-oil-crash-125047574.html Warren doesn't think this recession will be worse than in 2008 - 09. I feel that judging from what he says, he's probably busy buying shares. https://www.drwealth.com/insiders-bought-more-than-70m-worth-of-stocks-in-march-2020/ The article from Dr Wealth confirms that all the successful, wealthy individuals are buying their company shares as well. But the article below is important. Insider buying is often a good indicator of good value, and insiders' performance is often