How Best to Participate On the Oil Rebound Without Storing A Barrel of Oil

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My Funds Portfolio 14 Jan 2021

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  Below is the overall performance of my funds. For CPF, I put everything into funds. I refuse to buy SGD stocks because you should see the performance of MSCI Singapore below. In the last 1 year, the performance was down 5.9%. it is only this year that the performance went up slightly but it is still down. If I had used my CPF and cash to buy SGX listed companies I would have done at best 5% even with superior stock picking.   Look at the other indices. MSCI world is up 16.1%, S&P500 is up 18.0%, China is up 38.6%, Europe up 6.2%, MSCI Asia ex Japan up 28.2%. NASDAQ was of course the best performer with 44.7%. So the growth is NOT in Singapore. It is either in the US or Asia, mainly China. Even the best companies from Singapore are listed in NASDAQ, e.g. SEA Ltd. We have become the “forgotten man” or “sick Man” of Asia in terms of stock markets.       The average performance of my funds are 25.8%. this is unrealised return and doesn’t include realised gains...
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22 Jul portfolio review (Model Portfolio)

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  The model portfolio is up 12.67% from 23 March to 22 July. This compares favourably against the Vanguard Global Stocks ETF (up 10.3%), but still behind S&P 500 ETF (up 13.89%) and well ahead of the HK Tracker Fund (-1.60%). XIRR is 44.67%. There were several lessons learned from this tracking.   To be near the top performing ETF, in this case S&P500, you have to be constantly overweight US stocks, especially the big caps like Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook. To outperform you have to be extra careful with out of benchmark stocks, especially when they are extremely speculative, like Lemonade, ARK, ETFs, Square, Shanghai Airport. Once their trend dies, it is advisable to exit almost all your position since it will detract you from performance. The weighting is important. To outperform, you sometimes need to overweight the index stock with your strongest conviction, with a mix of momentum and growth. Do NOT worry too much about hedging the downside, especially if you are unl...
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This Too Shall Pass

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This is a good article to serve as a reminder. At the risk of sounding old, with 23 years of experience in the financial industry, and it may seem corny, but I must admit “I’ve seen it all before”.  1998 Asian Financial Crisis, 2001 Sep 11, SARS in 2003, 2008 global financial crisis. The chart does look scary. It is the fastest 18% fall in history because we are in the age of automation and robots trading. ETFs are also causing this sell down as it indiscriminately liquidates stocks when investors sell. Below is the S&P500 ETF, SPY. 18% drop from 18 Feb to now, in 15 trading days. If you are very worried, stretch out your chart on a weekly basis, and over 5 years. It now looks like familiar territory? It is now resting on the 150 weeks moving average. On 24 Dec 18, it rested on the same moving average and shot up by over 25%.  On 8 Feb 2016, it tested again and recovered 53%. Now does it look familiar?  We have seen this happen twice previously in t...
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