Can The Stock Market Predict The US Elections?
This is an interesting piece of data. Since WWII, when the S&P500 fell in the three months leading up to the November vote during a presidential election year, the incumbent president or party of the outgoing president has lost the election 88% of the time. Similarly, when the S&P500 rises during that period, the incumbent or party of the outgoing president has won 82% of the time. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/01/investing/stock-market-joe-biden-donald-trump-election/index.html It is predicting a razor thin, Biden victory! The S&P500 fell 0.04% between July 31 and Oct 31. Now the lock down in England has begun, while the Covid Virus death and infection rates are at a new high. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ I will stick to “stay-at-home” stocks. I’m rubbing my hand with glee as many of the stocks that ran away after the April rally are now back below 50 days MA and nearly at 150 days MA. Alphabet. Fair value around USD1900. Current m