Rising on an Upward Channel.... Fingers Crossed
This is the S&P500. The turnaround may have come. There is a new channel on the way up, also a double bottom. The projected upside is about 15%. I am cautiously optimistic now, buying along the way since 6 April.
The lower channel must hold otherwise there's a breakdown. Valuation wise the US is at the median level in terms of Cyclically Adjusted PE. I'm still looking at the usual favourites.... Franklin US Opportunities, UBS CHina A Opportunities, REITs, like Ascott Trust, Cromwell REIT, EC World, Manulife REIT, OCBC Bank, Bank of America, Johnson & Johnson, McDonalds, NIke, Ping An INsurance, Yum Brands, Yum China, Alibaba, Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, Tencent, Veeva Systems, Meituan Dianping, IHF the healthcare ETF, energy companies like ROyal Dutch Shell. Buy gradually, in my opinion just use up 40% of your capital and balance keep as cash or investment grade bond funds... Alternatives, Gold.
There is still a risk of a complete breakdown of the chart if the lock down persists and bankruptcy is widespread so extreme caution is required.
So ok, my asset allocation is now around 40% cash, 40% long, 10% short and 10% commodities (7% gold, 3% oil). I'm not an idealist, but a realist. Since I'm managing my own money, I cannot let a 20% rebound opportunity slip by me. The trend may end for sure, but as soon as it breaks the lower channel I'll take profit and short.
That's how a long-short equity global macro fund is run. Position sizing. Volatility control.
Lastly, this is just a personal sharing so do make your own decisions. Thanks.
The lower channel must hold otherwise there's a breakdown. Valuation wise the US is at the median level in terms of Cyclically Adjusted PE. I'm still looking at the usual favourites.... Franklin US Opportunities, UBS CHina A Opportunities, REITs, like Ascott Trust, Cromwell REIT, EC World, Manulife REIT, OCBC Bank, Bank of America, Johnson & Johnson, McDonalds, NIke, Ping An INsurance, Yum Brands, Yum China, Alibaba, Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, Tencent, Veeva Systems, Meituan Dianping, IHF the healthcare ETF, energy companies like ROyal Dutch Shell. Buy gradually, in my opinion just use up 40% of your capital and balance keep as cash or investment grade bond funds... Alternatives, Gold.
There is still a risk of a complete breakdown of the chart if the lock down persists and bankruptcy is widespread so extreme caution is required.
So ok, my asset allocation is now around 40% cash, 40% long, 10% short and 10% commodities (7% gold, 3% oil). I'm not an idealist, but a realist. Since I'm managing my own money, I cannot let a 20% rebound opportunity slip by me. The trend may end for sure, but as soon as it breaks the lower channel I'll take profit and short.
That's how a long-short equity global macro fund is run. Position sizing. Volatility control.
Lastly, this is just a personal sharing so do make your own decisions. Thanks.
Comments
Post a Comment