Covid Waves. The Dreaded Second Wave is Here. What About the Third?

Major pandemics come in three waves. It happened in the Spanish flu between 1918 - 1919.

https://theconversation.com/compare-the-flu-pandemic-of-1918-and-covid-19-with-caution-the-past-is-not-a-prediction-138895

The Spanish flu started in June 1918. By the winter of 1918, deaths and virrulance spiked up. By the Jan of 1919, it fell to almost nil death rates. But in Mar 1919, it spiked up again, this time lower than the winter of 1918 / 19, but higher than the first wave. Thereafter, it promptly disappeared.

The Spanish flu adapted quickly to become more infectious, but less lethal. The aim of the virus is not to kill the hosts, but to infect quickly and co-exist with the hosts.

 https://www.cnet.com/health/covid-19-vaccine-will-very-likely-work-on-uk-mutation-fauci-says-as-california-reports-case/

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/12/30/national/science-health/new-coronavirus-strains-normality/

The report shows that the vaccine very likely works on the new mutations. The link below shows the pattern of the current pandemic, which is very similar to the Spanish flu. The death rates started to spike in Mar 2020 and now nearly 1.8 millino have died. Meanwhile, the "serious / critical" cases of all infected have dropped from 10% to 0.5%. It shows that the overwhelming majority infected will either have mild or no symptoms. The death rate has also dropped from 10% to 3%. It is likely to fall further to 2% by June 2021.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Is the third wave in March 2021 likely to be much worse than the first, just like the Spanish Flu?

A lot depends on the speed of vaccinations. I suspect the third wave will still be higher than the first, but not by much. We are still going to see 8,000 to 12,000 deaths a day in Mar 2021. But by June, as larger swaths of the population are vaccinated, we should see death rates slowly falling. We could see between two and three million people dead by the end of 2021. It's dreadful yes, but it is also the fastest that we have ever effectively responded to a pandemic. It would have been 50 - 100 million if not for modern medicine. We capped it at around three million max by end 2021 and that's a major medical feat. It would have been better if a lot of countries made it mandatory to wear face masks, but alas, some "democracies" are more concerned with politics than to save human lives. In this respect, East Asian countries like South Korea, China, Singapore, Taiwan, and some Oceana countries like New Zealand have done well. There is a lot of evidence that wearing face masks, even the poor quality ones, reduces the quantity of the virus and even builds immunity to Covid due to the small quantities that pass through the masks. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7dVsCoi4Fs

Economics of Covid

My belief is this: by June 2021, about 1/3 of the developed world, including the Five Asian Tigers, will be vaccinated. Travel bubbles will be more common. Travellers will need to be vaccinated before travelling and the destination countries will recognise the "vaccination certificates" issued by the home countries.

We may see further relaxation of gatherings and a return to normality. Here in Singapore, we could see opening hours extended to midnight for restaurants and bars. Gatherings could increase to 15. 

The main economy will continue to recover worldwide and traditional companies continue to recover. 

By end 2021, 70% of the developed countries will be vaccinated. This is where herd immunity kicks in. Leisure travel will recover to 50% of the pre-Covid levels. Gosh, I can't wait to travel and ski again. I also need to visit Europe to check on my property developments and portfolios. 

The third wave could be just as deadly or slightly worse than the first, but vaccinations will curb the infection rates. 

By Jun 2022, we should finally reach normality!

But it doesn't mean that the stock markets will rally BECAUSE the economies are back no track. On the contrary, it usually crashes when the economy is red hot. I think 2021 will still be a good year, but 2022 will be where finally tide falls and we know who swam naked. Monetary policies the world over shall be wound back, interest rates start to rise. Oh dear oh dear, all the cheap debt that corporates borrowed have to be returned. I think interest rates will be kept near zero to negative up to 2023, but we will see bigger corrections of 20 - 30% going into 2022. 

Bitcoin and crypto currencies should rally further as fiat money is being debased. 

Gold and Silver should be about 5% of your portfolio. Bitcoin another 5% of your portfolio. 

For the next 10 years, healthcare, in particlar Human Genomic treatments like CRISPR will be making huge advancements to cure age-related illnesses. I'm a big fan of anti-ageing and am studying David Sinclair's reports to reverse it. 

Electric Vehicles may take up 20 - 40% of all car populations by 2030. So look at NIO, Tesla, BYD.

There will be major disruptions ahead to all the traditional economies.