22 Jul portfolio review (Model Portfolio)


 

The model portfolio is up 12.67% from 23 March to 22 July. This compares favourably against the Vanguard Global Stocks ETF (up 10.3%), but still behind S&P 500 ETF (up 13.89%) and well ahead of the HK Tracker Fund (-1.60%). XIRR is 44.67%. There were several lessons learned from this tracking.

 

  1. To be near the top performing ETF, in this case S&P500, you have to be constantly overweight US stocks, especially the big caps like Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook.
  2. To outperform you have to be extra careful with out of benchmark stocks, especially when they are extremely speculative, like Lemonade, ARK, ETFs, Square, Shanghai Airport. Once their trend dies, it is advisable to exit almost all your position since it will detract you from performance.
  3. The weighting is important. To outperform, you sometimes need to overweight the index stock with your strongest conviction, with a mix of momentum and growth.
  4. Do NOT worry too much about hedging the downside, especially if you are unleveraged. You should instead buy on dips, at each support lines, whether they be the moving averages or trend lines.

 

My next endeavour is to try to beat the S&P500. The time will come if I persist to learn from each mistake.

 




 



84% of the portfolio is in US stocks. Only 8.7% + 1.4% in HK or Chinese equities. 5.7% in Singapore.


 


 

In the last 30 days, the portfolio is up 1.95%, which is better than the Total World Stock Index up 0.8% and HK tracker down 1.47%, but below S&P500 (2.7%). Top contributors to the portfolio were:

 

  1. Direxion 3x Technology (this is a trade, it is a leveraged 3x on the tech ETF, XLK), you can also buy Polar Cap Tech or Blackrock World Technology. Up 15.14% and contributed 0.49% to the portfolio.
  2. Hong Kong Exchange 388 HK. There was a rise in momentum, led by rising pressure on Chinese companies not to list in the US but in HK. Up 19.52% and contributed 0.35%.
  3. UnitedHealth Group. I’ve added more position on this. Up 4% contributed 0.22%.
  4. S&P500. Franklin US Opportunities. Up 2.7% contributed 0.19%.
  5. Alphabet. Up 4.27%. Contributed 0.16%.


Over 7 days, the contributors were:

  1. HK Exchange up 6.93%
  2. SEA Ltd up 9.33%
  3. Moderna up 23.66%
  4. NIO up 7.07%
  5. Mercado Libre up 2.76%



 

Since inception, from 23 March, the top contributors were:

 

  1. Shorting MicroStrategy. Up 89.85%. a negative view on BitCoin.
  2. Moderna up 43.03%. Thanks to their vaccine. This wonderful Pharma has contributed a lot to my portfolio.
  3. Alphabet up 25.66%. Strong resilient business that we all use.
  4. S&P Global up 20.38%.
  5. Facebook up 18.4%. Another internet, social media company that we all use.






Worst contributors.

  1. Ping An Insurance down 18.6% I’m holding on to this.
  2. Lemonade down 15.01%. This is a trade and I’m holding on to half.
  3. Tencent down 11.2%. I’m holding on to this solid company. Most Chinese internet companies experienced 30 – 40% revenue growth but were battered down by politics. The fundamental strength remains.
  4. Boeing down 10.9%. This is a reopening story. It is a Duopoly that will eventually see orders rise again. They are likened to the spade seller in a gold rush. Not every gold miner (airline company) will survive. But the spade seller (plane maker) will almost be the winner.
  5. Nvidia down 10.75%. Great company but expensive. I entered at the wrong timing but expect to hold

 





New adjustments, notable ones:

 

  1. Added Mastercard
  2. Added JD.com
  3. SOLD 25% of Facebook because it is up 25%
  4. SOLD another 25% of Moderna because it shot up by a further 25%
  5. Added unitedHealth Group
  6. Took profit on McDonalds. Sold ¼.
  7. Took profit on Intercontinental Exchange. Sold ¼.
  8. BUY Hong Kong Exchange 388 HK. Another ½ position. This is a significant addition.







Here’s all for the week folks. I’m constantly learning, improving, trying to be a good investor, portfolio manager. Why do I do this? As my own savings grow, I wish to manage them better. If I’m a better investor, I can guide clients better to achieve better results. There will always be a wave up, wave down, volatility along the way, but the trend is up due to  inflation, money printing and constant economic growth.

 

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