Are We Gonna Crash?

I’m sharing what I presented to some friends. This is what I’ve garnered in my own research.

Instead of looking at news and valuation for what drives the stock markets, why don’t we look at the balance sheets. Below is a chart of the S&P500 vs assets of major central banks over the last 12 years. Pretty consistent right?  



Below are the biggest money supply increases / money printers of the world. The Fed, ECB, BOJ. Surprisingly, PBOC or People’s Bank of China did not increase. That could be because China issues bonds mostly in USD, not RMB. It needs to maintain currency stability to service USD debt.



Looking at the MSCI Europe, the index trend pretty much follows its balance sheets / money supply. Both rise in tandem.



The MSCI Japan also increases in tandem.



The Chinese index did not rise and mirrored the balance sheet / money supply. It was sideways from 2009 – 2020.



While the stock markets have corrected, it is unlikely to fall below March 2020’s low. It may actually achieve a new high. The time to lift the lid off the paddle and take profit is when the central banks are hiking rates to slow down the economy. That is a long, long time away.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8YpjFblX-s

This is a very good video explain how stock markets / money supply ratio is a better explanation of stock performance. Judging by the looks of it, the S&P500, European and Japanese stock markets may be the best performers for the next 1 to 2 years.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16HeajUaXRg&t=156s

I also have a new YouTube channel where I express my personal views. It is not for profit nor advisory in nature. I'm merely sharing what I've researched and keeping a record of what I've said over time. 


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

My Funds Portfolio 14 Jan 2021

Image
  Below is the overall performance of my funds. For CPF, I put everything into funds. I refuse to buy SGD stocks because you should see the performance of MSCI Singapore below. In the last 1 year, the performance was down 5.9%. it is only this year that the performance went up slightly but it is still down. If I had used my CPF and cash to buy SGX listed companies I would have done at best 5% even with superior stock picking.   Look at the other indices. MSCI world is up 16.1%, S&P500 is up 18.0%, China is up 38.6%, Europe up 6.2%, MSCI Asia ex Japan up 28.2%. NASDAQ was of course the best performer with 44.7%. So the growth is NOT in Singapore. It is either in the US or Asia, mainly China. Even the best companies from Singapore are listed in NASDAQ, e.g. SEA Ltd. We have become the “forgotten man” or “sick Man” of Asia in terms of stock markets.       The average performance of my funds are 25.8%. this is unrealised return and doesn’t include realised gains. I’ve held them through
Read more

Lessons in Life

 I've worked with lots of people. Some are my good friends. I thought we could collaborate together. But somehow, maybe they found better opportunities elsewhere, decide to cast me aside and work with others. Some, don't add value but still want to be my equal partner. Others, limit their collaboration with me, denying me other opportunities.  The best way to act is to show every inch of gratitude I can to everyone. First, the one that opens doors and work with me wholeheartedly, I shall wholeheartedly contribute and ensure that the pie is greater than not dividing with me and working alone.  For those who opened a door and then decide to limit collaboration, I shall still be thankful, have gratitude. Whatever someone gives me in good faith, no matter how little, I shall still do my best.  For those who shut the door, I bear no grudges for I am thankful we have met.  This is the path I've chosen to walk, without regrets. 
Read more

Performance Attribution

 My portfolio comprises stocks and funds from various gurus and teachers. Here is the description of each one. I shan't name them for fear of being accused of promoting one over the other.  Guru 1: 15 years of track record. Averaged 25% per year return. Highly transparent and informed me of every trade.  Result: from 23 Mar 21 to now.  4.8% return.  Guru 2: 10 years of track record with 30% return per year. Gives me a black box type of system based solely on momentum. Scans through the NASDAQ for the top five momentum stocks.  Result: -15.04%.  Guru 3: Internet sensation with almost 1 million followers. Personal friend. Made 3x in 2020 due to investments in speculative tech companies like SEA Ltd, Tesla, ARK Genomic Revolution, Lemonade, Square.  Result: - 13.2% Guru 4: 12 years of track record of around 7.7% return per year. Purely fundamental analysis.  Result: -28.2%.  My own: 5 years of track record of around 18% per year. Value - momentum strategy.  6.8% It appears that my pic
Read more