Coronavirus Tapering Off?

We could yet see another leg down for most western stock markets…. For Asia, especially China, the selling is overdone.

Often times, the pandemic whatever pent-up demand will be released to compensate for the loss of production and consumption during the “quarantine period”. The stock markets usually love  disasters….

Pray for all to be healthy and condolences for those who perished.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6




Bottom right corner of the chart below shows that the infection rate has tapered off. 99% of the deaths are from China. Outside of China, which I presume you can trust the data, the death rate is 0.7%, which almost the same as a common flu. The virus appears the most deadly in the epicenter of Hubei. Even outside of Hubei, e.g. Guangdong, Shanghai etc the death rate is less than 10. Recovery rate to death rate has risen above 3x from 1.5x since I started tracking this 2 weeks ago.

The more worrying thing is that infections are still climbing, especially in Singapore. But the “delta” or rate of change is slowing down.




Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

My Funds Portfolio 14 Jan 2021

Image
  Below is the overall performance of my funds. For CPF, I put everything into funds. I refuse to buy SGD stocks because you should see the performance of MSCI Singapore below. In the last 1 year, the performance was down 5.9%. it is only this year that the performance went up slightly but it is still down. If I had used my CPF and cash to buy SGX listed companies I would have done at best 5% even with superior stock picking.   Look at the other indices. MSCI world is up 16.1%, S&P500 is up 18.0%, China is up 38.6%, Europe up 6.2%, MSCI Asia ex Japan up 28.2%. NASDAQ was of course the best performer with 44.7%. So the growth is NOT in Singapore. It is either in the US or Asia, mainly China. Even the best companies from Singapore are listed in NASDAQ, e.g. SEA Ltd. We have become the “forgotten man” or “sick Man” of Asia in terms of stock markets.       The average performance of my funds are 25.8%. this is unrealised return and doesn’t include realised gains...
Read more

This Too Shall Pass

Image
This is a good article to serve as a reminder. At the risk of sounding old, with 23 years of experience in the financial industry, and it may seem corny, but I must admit “I’ve seen it all before”.  1998 Asian Financial Crisis, 2001 Sep 11, SARS in 2003, 2008 global financial crisis. The chart does look scary. It is the fastest 18% fall in history because we are in the age of automation and robots trading. ETFs are also causing this sell down as it indiscriminately liquidates stocks when investors sell. Below is the S&P500 ETF, SPY. 18% drop from 18 Feb to now, in 15 trading days. If you are very worried, stretch out your chart on a weekly basis, and over 5 years. It now looks like familiar territory? It is now resting on the 150 weeks moving average. On 24 Dec 18, it rested on the same moving average and shot up by over 25%.  On 8 Feb 2016, it tested again and recovered 53%. Now does it look familiar?  We have seen this happen twice previously in t...
Read more

A Bull Run is Born from Pessimism

Image
“A Bull Run is born from pessimism”. Some famous fund manager said that. I think it’s Peter Lynch. The bottom of the “Big Correction” was Christmas Eve, 24 th  Dec 2018. All stock markets rallied very hard in the first four months of 2019. But then the Trade War started, with Twitters threatening every other day of escalating embargoes. Asia ex Japan, MSCI Emerging Market and Japan were hit very hard, while the western world continued to rally. It was very difficult as an advisor to “push” or “persuade” clients to increase equity allocation because the news was simply very bad at every angle. There lies my repeated urgings to ignore mainstream news. One simply cannot make economic forecasts and translate that to equity returns! What matters is momentum and value! Pick the best value or cheapest stocks, sectors, funds, check the technicals if they are going to rise or fall. If they are rising, you buy. If they are falling, stay far away. Now that most of the easy money is made ...
Read more