My Investment Returns for CPF funds so far.

I've been asked to authenticate my returns. Below is the summary of my profits. It is around SGD63k.



My current portfolio is as such. Take note that a lot of it is CPF Savings Account. My CPF Ordinary Account is depleted as I had to use it to invest in Singapore residential properties. The list of funds available for investment in CPF SA is very restrictive. I reckon First State Bridge is the best.


See the table below. Because 64% of my portfolio is from CPF SA. The only investment I'm allowed is balanced fud so I chose First State Bridge. It is 50% equities and 50% bonds. The balance of 36% of my CPF investment is from CPF OA, which allows me to invest in pure equity funds.  My asset allocation is around 32% fixed income and 68% equities. So this is a balanced mandate not by choice, but due to the constraints of CPF SA.




Initial investment 1-Mar-16 -114,487.30
Additions 1-Mar-17 -38,162.44
1-Mar-18 -38,162.44
1-Mar-19 -38,162.44
27-Dec-19 292,256.77
XIRR 0.0884259

The initial investment as you can see in the first graph is SGD229k. However, it's spread out over several years. Above is a snapshot of the spreadsheet I kept. I invested SGD114,487.30 on 1 March 2016. On 1 March 17, I invested a further SGD38,162.44. ON 1 March 18, a further SGD38,162.44, on 1 March 2019, a further 38,162.44. The ending value is SGD292,256.77. The resulting internal rate of return is 8.84% annualised. If I assume that the bond portion of the portfolio returns 3% per year, it will contribute 0.03 x 0.32 = 0.96% of the return of the portfolio. The equity portion will be 8.84% - 0.96% = 8.744%. 7.88% is 68% of the portfolio. A pure equity portfolio will return 7.88 / 0.68 = 11.69% per year. 11.59% is the return per year for the equity portfolion, stripping out the returns for bond funds.

This is a long only portfolio and ignores stock picks using cash, shorting the markets when it's down, which would have allowed me to achieve around 15% return in 2018 when Asian markets were down around 20%. I reckon by tweaking my technique, I can achieve around 15% without leverage on a long-short strategy, with a standard deviation of around 10%, achieving a Sharpe ratio of 1.5x. If I leverage 1x, I can achieve around 25% with a standard deviation of 18%.

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