Market Update 27 Aug 19

https://youtu.be/WWc14uBHGiQ

Latest posting for my market comments.

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My Funds Portfolio 14 Jan 2021

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  Below is the overall performance of my funds. For CPF, I put everything into funds. I refuse to buy SGD stocks because you should see the performance of MSCI Singapore below. In the last 1 year, the performance was down 5.9%. it is only this year that the performance went up slightly but it is still down. If I had used my CPF and cash to buy SGX listed companies I would have done at best 5% even with superior stock picking.   Look at the other indices. MSCI world is up 16.1%, S&P500 is up 18.0%, China is up 38.6%, Europe up 6.2%, MSCI Asia ex Japan up 28.2%. NASDAQ was of course the best performer with 44.7%. So the growth is NOT in Singapore. It is either in the US or Asia, mainly China. Even the best companies from Singapore are listed in NASDAQ, e.g. SEA Ltd. We have become the “forgotten man” or “sick Man” of Asia in terms of stock markets.       The average performance of my funds are 25.8%. this is unrealised return and doesn’t include realised gains...
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22 Jul portfolio review (Model Portfolio)

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  The model portfolio is up 12.67% from 23 March to 22 July. This compares favourably against the Vanguard Global Stocks ETF (up 10.3%), but still behind S&P 500 ETF (up 13.89%) and well ahead of the HK Tracker Fund (-1.60%). XIRR is 44.67%. There were several lessons learned from this tracking.   To be near the top performing ETF, in this case S&P500, you have to be constantly overweight US stocks, especially the big caps like Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook. To outperform you have to be extra careful with out of benchmark stocks, especially when they are extremely speculative, like Lemonade, ARK, ETFs, Square, Shanghai Airport. Once their trend dies, it is advisable to exit almost all your position since it will detract you from performance. The weighting is important. To outperform, you sometimes need to overweight the index stock with your strongest conviction, with a mix of momentum and growth. Do NOT worry too much about hedging the downside, especially if you are unl...
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A Bull Run is Born from Pessimism

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“A Bull Run is born from pessimism”. Some famous fund manager said that. I think it’s Peter Lynch. The bottom of the “Big Correction” was Christmas Eve, 24 th  Dec 2018. All stock markets rallied very hard in the first four months of 2019. But then the Trade War started, with Twitters threatening every other day of escalating embargoes. Asia ex Japan, MSCI Emerging Market and Japan were hit very hard, while the western world continued to rally. It was very difficult as an advisor to “push” or “persuade” clients to increase equity allocation because the news was simply very bad at every angle. There lies my repeated urgings to ignore mainstream news. One simply cannot make economic forecasts and translate that to equity returns! What matters is momentum and value! Pick the best value or cheapest stocks, sectors, funds, check the technicals if they are going to rise or fall. If they are rising, you buy. If they are falling, stay far away. Now that most of the easy money is made ...
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