US Yield Curve Has Inverted!


The US yield curve has narrowed the most since Sep 2007. The S&P500 peaked in Nov 2007 and crashed over 50%. The 3 months is now lower than the 10 years for the first time in over 11 years.

Please read the article below.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/21/a-key-recession-indicator-just-did-something-that-hasnt-happened-in-12-years.html




The 2 years v 10 years hasn't inverted though. It is at its thinnest spread of 0.112% now. At any time it could invert. There is a lead time of 16 months before the next recession so I'm looking at a US recession in mid 2020. Stock rally could end by mid to late 2020.

Also, the old adage to "sell in May and go away, don't come back to St Ledger's day" historically seems to apply every alternate year, we may not see a May sell down in 2019, but it may happen in 2020.

So this stock market rally could be short lived. Hang on to your seatbelts and be nimble. I foresee a 10% correction very soon. Then a continuation of the rally. Let's see.


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