This is a sharing of my personal investment view and ideas, not financial advice. Everyone's financial objectives and risk tolerances are different. You are encouraged to do your own research and make your own decisions. Seek professional investment advice if need be.
The US Stock Market Never Had a Negative Return 9 Months After a Midterm Election
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It’s often the Darkest Before Dawn but it looks like we will have a very busy Nov / Dec ahead.
The model portfolio is up 12.67% from 23 March to 22 July. This compares favourably against the Vanguard Global Stocks ETF (up 10.3%), but still behind S&P 500 ETF (up 13.89%) and well ahead of the HK Tracker Fund (-1.60%). XIRR is 44.67%. There were several lessons learned from this tracking. To be near the top performing ETF, in this case S&P500, you have to be constantly overweight US stocks, especially the big caps like Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook. To outperform you have to be extra careful with out of benchmark stocks, especially when they are extremely speculative, like Lemonade, ARK, ETFs, Square, Shanghai Airport. Once their trend dies, it is advisable to exit almost all your position since it will detract you from performance. The weighting is important. To outperform, you sometimes need to overweight the index stock with your strongest conviction, with a mix of momentum and growth. Do NOT worry too much about hedging the downside, especially if you are unl...
Below is the overall performance of my funds. For CPF, I put everything into funds. I refuse to buy SGD stocks because you should see the performance of MSCI Singapore below. In the last 1 year, the performance was down 5.9%. it is only this year that the performance went up slightly but it is still down. If I had used my CPF and cash to buy SGX listed companies I would have done at best 5% even with superior stock picking. Look at the other indices. MSCI world is up 16.1%, S&P500 is up 18.0%, China is up 38.6%, Europe up 6.2%, MSCI Asia ex Japan up 28.2%. NASDAQ was of course the best performer with 44.7%. So the growth is NOT in Singapore. It is either in the US or Asia, mainly China. Even the best companies from Singapore are listed in NASDAQ, e.g. SEA Ltd. We have become the “forgotten man” or “sick Man” of Asia in terms of stock markets. The average performance of my funds are 25.8%. this is unrealised return and doesn’t include realised gains...
I've worked with lots of people. Some are my good friends. I thought we could collaborate together. But somehow, maybe they found better opportunities elsewhere, decide to cast me aside and work with others. Some, don't add value but still want to be my equal partner. Others, limit their collaboration with me, denying me other opportunities. The best way to act is to show every inch of gratitude I can to everyone. First, the one that opens doors and work with me wholeheartedly, I shall wholeheartedly contribute and ensure that the pie is greater than not dividing with me and working alone. For those who opened a door and then decide to limit collaboration, I shall still be thankful, have gratitude. Whatever someone gives me in good faith, no matter how little, I shall still do my best. For those who shut the door, I bear no grudges for I am thankful we have met. This is the path I've chosen to walk, without regrets.
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