Signs of Stabilising But Not Yet

Several major events happened this week.

Did you notice that right after Donald Trump slapped another huge tariff on China, the Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets shot up?

I think the end of the correction, which started in Feb 2018 for ex US stocks, is about to end in Oct or Nov 2018. Disappointingly, I wished it were a bigger fall, because the bigger the fall, the bigger the rise.

This fall was not even near 2015 May to Jan 2016 or May 2011 to Dec 2012. So I think any recovery of EM index or ETF is likely to be around 20 - 30% ball park. For 2823:HK perhaps 25 - 35%. For Russia perhaps 30 - 40%, Turkey could be the biggest winner between 50 - 100% because it has fallen by about 50%. I would go for HSBC Turkey or TUR US ETF.

For Singapore stocks, check out counters which fell by 30 - 40% recently, single digit PE, good growth rates and strong business models, e.g. China Sunsine which is an aggregator of car tyres.


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