Brexit & UK
I've always been very interested in affairs in UK because a large part of my immediate and extended family lives there. London is a city that I've always wanted to work in because it is better paid and better developed than in Singapore. The hedge fund, private equity business dwarfed Singapore's. Up to 2007, London surpassed Singapore's AUM in private banking.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-19/brexit-has-brought-britain-to-a-standstill
If you studied Game Theory, you will understand why the deal will go down the wire. The EU has the upper hand because it is a much larger market. UK stands to lose more, not just economically, but to lose half the country; namely Northern Ireland and Scotland to EU.
If I were Macron and Merkel, I will make an example of the UK to scare other countries against leaving the EU in future. I will want to ensure that Britain is no longer Great. I will be unyielding in my negotiations.
My stand as EU will be "no freedom of movement, no free movement of goods and service." It will be a take it or leave it.
I suspect after March 2019, job losses will escalate in the UK. Those who voted to Leave will realise that it is a huge mistake to leave because companies will shut down now that their biggest markets are throwing tariffs. Services like banking will cut large numbers of staff as it cannot serve the EU markets.
Negotiating free trade agreements will be long and arduous. From my personal experience, it takes over five years to negotiate FTAs. Most countries like the US, China will know that UK is desperate for FTAs and will give a short shrift.
Six months into the "no-deal" or "hard-Brexit" scenario, there will be increasing protests for a second referendum. Threats may even be made to MPs who are still pro Brexit. There may be riots, demonstrations on the streets between the Remain and Brexitiers.
By the end of 2019, it will be clear that Brexit was a huge mistake.
Of course, Nick Farage and Boris Johnson will point to Singapore's success post leaving Malaya. But Singapore had a strong government and a benign dictator in Lee Kuan Yew then. The Brexiters like Farage and Johnson are bailers of Brexit. Only Theresa May is left holding the baby and she does not have a strong government unlike Singapore in 1965.
The odds are stacked against the Brits.
On the investment side I will be very careful of investing in luxury properties and student accommodation. Towns and cities that cater to the student industry will see thousands of EU students returning to the continent as they enjoy free university education. The inflow of wealthy Asians will not be enough to fill the outflow. The rich industrialists who own corporations will find ways to relocate to the EU for a bigger market. They may sell their luxury properties along the way.
The referendum result will probably severely weaken Britain, cause the country to lose Northern Ireland and Scotland eventually, and will take over 10 years to recover from this tragic error. There will be many more twists and turns in future. May could be usurped by Pro Brexiters within Tories. Tories may lose to Labour in the next election and a second referendum may occur. It is not easy to reverse a Brexit and will take another decade to renegotiate terms to rejoin. In fact Britain may lose even more sovereignty if they decide to rejoin after it leaves.
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/hub-projects/property-2018-september-issue/do-your-homework-when-venturing-overseas
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-19/brexit-has-brought-britain-to-a-standstill
If you studied Game Theory, you will understand why the deal will go down the wire. The EU has the upper hand because it is a much larger market. UK stands to lose more, not just economically, but to lose half the country; namely Northern Ireland and Scotland to EU.
If I were Macron and Merkel, I will make an example of the UK to scare other countries against leaving the EU in future. I will want to ensure that Britain is no longer Great. I will be unyielding in my negotiations.
My stand as EU will be "no freedom of movement, no free movement of goods and service." It will be a take it or leave it.
I suspect after March 2019, job losses will escalate in the UK. Those who voted to Leave will realise that it is a huge mistake to leave because companies will shut down now that their biggest markets are throwing tariffs. Services like banking will cut large numbers of staff as it cannot serve the EU markets.
Negotiating free trade agreements will be long and arduous. From my personal experience, it takes over five years to negotiate FTAs. Most countries like the US, China will know that UK is desperate for FTAs and will give a short shrift.
Six months into the "no-deal" or "hard-Brexit" scenario, there will be increasing protests for a second referendum. Threats may even be made to MPs who are still pro Brexit. There may be riots, demonstrations on the streets between the Remain and Brexitiers.
By the end of 2019, it will be clear that Brexit was a huge mistake.
Of course, Nick Farage and Boris Johnson will point to Singapore's success post leaving Malaya. But Singapore had a strong government and a benign dictator in Lee Kuan Yew then. The Brexiters like Farage and Johnson are bailers of Brexit. Only Theresa May is left holding the baby and she does not have a strong government unlike Singapore in 1965.
The odds are stacked against the Brits.
On the investment side I will be very careful of investing in luxury properties and student accommodation. Towns and cities that cater to the student industry will see thousands of EU students returning to the continent as they enjoy free university education. The inflow of wealthy Asians will not be enough to fill the outflow. The rich industrialists who own corporations will find ways to relocate to the EU for a bigger market. They may sell their luxury properties along the way.
The referendum result will probably severely weaken Britain, cause the country to lose Northern Ireland and Scotland eventually, and will take over 10 years to recover from this tragic error. There will be many more twists and turns in future. May could be usurped by Pro Brexiters within Tories. Tories may lose to Labour in the next election and a second referendum may occur. It is not easy to reverse a Brexit and will take another decade to renegotiate terms to rejoin. In fact Britain may lose even more sovereignty if they decide to rejoin after it leaves.
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/hub-projects/property-2018-september-issue/do-your-homework-when-venturing-overseas
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