Musings about Life and Investments

I looked at some of the stocks that I follow on my radar screen. The pre-market trading looks calm and fully factored in after the 25bps hike. As expected.  J Look out for companies going through share buybacks. They have a strong chance of doing well. Miyoshi, CSE Global, China Sunsine etc are a few names. But CSE Global is the one that is really trending up and paying a nice dividend yield! I spoke to a few astute investors. Almost all of them make their wealth when they buy during times where no one dared venture. E.g. I met a new friend called Chris. He lived in Japan for a few years. Bought a block of flats just behind Tsukiji Fish Market, demolished and built six storeys. Guess when he bought the small block? Back in 2012, just after the Tsunami hit….  J  today it almost doubled. The cap rate was 7% then and now 4%. If you had bought single family homes in in the US coastal areas between 2009 and 2013, you would have made a good 30 – 50% now. I was in ...

Enough said. 

https://expertinvestoreurope.com/mg-to-shift-e39bn-on-brex…/ I am from the banking sector and I know of at least 60% of the fund management, wealth management, hedge fund and private equity businesses shifting out of the UK. I haven't mentioned the number of factories and other services e.g. legal, accounting firms on the way out. UK is just 15% of EU's GDP and it makes sense to scale down your operation by cutting between 25 to 80% of headcount in the UK. I've seen the Asian Financial Crisis, Tech Bubble, Great Financial Crisis, The Big Short, The Big Long, and Brexit. But here comes the "Great Shift". I think in a "No-Deal" or "Hard Brexit" scenario it will plunge the UK into a recession for several years, eventually with Northern Ireland and Scotland leaving the Union, and will take the country five to 10 years to recover.

I've always been very interested in affairs in UK because a large part of my immediate and extended family lives there. London is a city that I've always wanted to work in because it is better paid and better developed than in Singapore. The hedge fund, private equity business dwarfed Singapore's. Up to 2007, London surpassed Singapore's AUM in private banking. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-19/brexit-has-brought-britain-to-a-standstill If you studied Game Theory, you will understand why the deal will go down the wire. The EU has the upper hand because it is a much larger market. UK stands to lose more, not just economically, but to lose half the country; namely Northern Ireland and Scotland to EU. If I were Macron and Merkel, I will make an example of the UK to scare other countries against leaving the EU in future. I will want to ensure that Britain is no longer Great. I will be unyielding in my negotiations. My stand as EU will be "no f...

Several major events happened this week. Did you notice that right after Donald Trump slapped another huge tariff on China, the Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets shot up? I think the end of the correction, which started in Feb 2018 for ex US stocks, is about to end in Oct or Nov 2018. Disappointingly, I wished it were a bigger fall, because the bigger the fall, the bigger the rise. This fall was not even near 2015 May to Jan 2016 or May 2011 to Dec 2012. So I think any recovery of EM index or ETF is likely to be around 20 - 30% ball park. For 2823:HK perhaps 25 - 35%. For Russia perhaps 30 - 40%, Turkey could be the biggest winner between 50 - 100% because it has fallen by about 50%. I would go for HSBC Turkey or TUR US ETF. For Singapore stocks, check out counters which fell by 30 - 40% recently, single digit PE, good growth rates and strong business models, e.g. China Sunsine which is an aggregator of car tyres.

It has been a very challenging year for equities. Only US stocks and the tech sector rose year to date. You can click on the hyperlink below.  A single account to empower you with access to Unit Trusts, Wholesale/Retail Bonds, Stocks/ETFs, FSM MAPS and Insurance. | FSMOne A single account to empower you with access to Unit Trusts, Wholesale/Re... A single account to empower you with access to Unit Trusts, Wholesale/Retail Bonds, Stocks/ETFs, FSM MAPS and In... Emerging markets and European equities fell by close to 20%.  Investors would have made money by converting domestic currencies to USD, investing in several sectors: 1. Short Emerging Markets ETF. Denominated in USD. EUM US Equities (Bloomberg ticker). 2. Short European Equities ETF. Denominated in USD. EPV US Equities. 3. The latest position was to buy companies that produce medical marijuana. The sector shot up. Canopy Growth, from Aug to Sep, rose by close to...

EM equities and bonds always suffer from fund outflows whenever there’s aversion to risk. Moh El Erian called it “cross over money” from the US. When the US hikes rates and the USD strengthens, there’s a flight of safety out of EM equities to the US. It’s similar to the 1997 Asian Crisis. Regardless of fundamentals, investors are indiscriminate. That’s why I always feel that “fundamentals” will get us there eventually. Sentiment and technical analysis will tell us if the time is right to BUY, HOLD or SELL. The Indonesia ETF has fallen by 25% since the peak of Jan 2018. Malaysia fell by only 14% and it is one of the most attractively valued markets in the world. I feel that the rebound will be the strongest from this country. The Philippines ETF has fallen by 25% since the peak of Jan 2018. The Thai ETF fell by only 10% and it is one of the most attractively valued markets in the world. I feel that the rebound will be the strongest f...