Musings about Life and Investments

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 I am both relieved and humbled that my model portfolio has continued to outperform S&P500. It is up 20.11% from 23 March 2021. Against 16.14% for S&P500, Vanguard World Stocks with 10.51% and Hong Kong Tracker -10.27%.  I added an inverse 3x China ETF, YANG in view of the declining trend, plus 3x Emerging Market inverse ETF, EDZ. Both trades paid off and enabled the portfolio to outperform S&P500. These are merely trades and I will only apply them to markets which are on a medium term decline.  I've also reduced my China exposure drastically to minimise the damage.  From the chart below, you can see that the outperformance started in May 2021 and was stretched further from July 2021 onwards. I've added further tech stocks and reduced my China exposure. My exposure to Chinese stocks dropped to 4.8% when it was previously in the high single digits. USD exposure increased to 89%. The champion was Moderna, up 83% since I bought it in April. I bought this on ...

  This is a review of the model portfolio I’ve constructed which started from 23 march 2021. It is up 17.6%. It has beaten Vanguard Global stocks ETF or a Global Equity Fund (10.32%), outperformed S&P500 (14% up), beaten HK tracker -5.4%. XIRR is 56.93%.   The purpose of doing this is multi-pronged. 1) I want to ensure that what I’ve said made sense and add value. 2) the only way I can ensure that I add value is to beat the index otherwise I should just buy the index. 3) I wish to better manage my portfolio. 4) I can give good advice to clients who can then make money investing. 5) I decipher the secrets of beating Wall street and 6) if I wish to set up a fund some day, I know what to do.             The key thing in beating the benchmark is to underweight China at the right time, and overweight at the right time, also to focus on sectors that will outperform. Stock picking plays a huge part and I focus exclusively on investing in stocks with ...

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  The model portfolio is up 12.67% from 23 March to 22 July. This compares favourably against the Vanguard Global Stocks ETF (up 10.3%), but still behind S&P 500 ETF (up 13.89%) and well ahead of the HK Tracker Fund (-1.60%). XIRR is 44.67%. There were several lessons learned from this tracking.   To be near the top performing ETF, in this case S&P500, you have to be constantly overweight US stocks, especially the big caps like Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook. To outperform you have to be extra careful with out of benchmark stocks, especially when they are extremely speculative, like Lemonade, ARK, ETFs, Square, Shanghai Airport. Once their trend dies, it is advisable to exit almost all your position since it will detract you from performance. The weighting is important. To outperform, you sometimes need to overweight the index stock with your strongest conviction, with a mix of momentum and growth. Do NOT worry too much about hedging the downside, especially if you are unl...

  Good day all   The model portfolio is up 7.48% from 23 Mar 2021. XIRR is 34.76%. It is still trailing behind the Vanguard Global Stocks ETF up 8.8% and the S&P500 up 10.09%. The Hong Kong Tracker Fund 3115 HK is also starting to turn up. Up 3.55%. This is for my own reference and purely for educational purposes only. It helps me correct my mistakes and track where the fund flows are going.  As I’ve mentioned there is a rotation into big capped tech sectors (e.g. Amazon, facebook, Adobe, Salesforce, ServiceNow), emerging tech (SEA Ltd, Tesla,), China tech (Meituan, Alibaba). I am tracking Alibaba closely as many of you have big positions on it. I’m seeing a huge turnaround after falling by over 30%. I’m also seeing a huge turnaround from Shanghai International Airport 600009 CN from 48.5 to 51.85.     Below is the equity curve of the portfolio.   Portfolio is still overweight US stocks. 81.1%. SGD stocks accounted for 7.3%. HKD stocks 11.5%. The cause ...