Musings about Life and Investments

I’ve often mentioned yield curve inversions are like earthquake warning signals. Some SEISMIC activity or small tremors often warn you of bigger tremors ahead. But the problem is, you just don’t know when. It could be 1, 5, 10 or even 50 years before the “BIG ONE” or big earthquake strikes. Meanwhile, what do you do? Uproot your family, sell your home, change jobs and relocate to another city with less earthquake risk? Below are two tables for your reference. Why you should not panic after an inversion: 1.         A persistent inversion of one to two quarters of the 2 and 10 years yield is necessary for the inversion to count, not for a few minutes. 2.         Look at “Figure 6”. The lag period of inversion to recession ranged from as short as 14 months in 2001, to as long as 34 months in 2001! You could wait nearly 3 years to see a recession. The average time lag to a recession is 22 months. That’s 1 year ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/after-yield-curve-inverts-stocks-typically-have-18-months-before-doom.html After a key yield curve inversion, stocks typically have another year and a half before doom strikes PUBLISHED WED, AUG 14 2019   7:15 AM EDT UPDATED 41 MIN AGO Thomas Franck @TOMWFRANCK KEY POINTS The fearsome inversion of the key 2-year and 10-year yields finally happened early Wednesday, sending markets reeling. Historical analysis shows that stocks typically have another 18 months to rally after an inversion, then trouble hits. VIDEO 03:47 Stocks plunged on recession fears—Four experts on what it means for markets The inversion of the yield curve has been a big worry on traders’ minds all year, but historical analysis shows that stocks typically have another 18 months to rally before equity markets start to see signs of trouble. Strategists firs...

Video Assisted Referee (VAR) and The Terrible World Of Football Before It I often wondered what VAR will do to soccer. Don't get me wrong. I love VAR. When I started watching soccer, I was incensed by the losses of talented teams like Brazil, Arsenal, Barcelona. In 1982, Brazil was arguably the most exciting and talented team. They were beaten by Italy which had 5 defenders, 3 midfielders and 2 strikers. In 1986, Argentina beat England by Maradona's "hand of God". Although they were the best team. In 1990, West Germany beat Argentina 1-0, in a very boring game that went into extra time. In 1994, Brazil beat Italy on penalties after drawing 0-0. Brazil was the best team in the tournament though. 2004, Greece beat Portugal 1-0 in extra time with only 2 shots on target. The worst tournament since the 1990 world cup. Italy beat France in the world cup final 2006 and the best player was Cannavaro of Italy, who was a defender.  In the Premiership, teams like Arsen...