Musings about Life and Investments

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/how-do-stocks-perform-during-presidential-election-cycle This is a good article. The first two years of the US presidential cycle is usually so-so as the new President tries to carry out his pre-election promises. This usually comes with painful reforms. Years 2 and 3 are usually when the President tries to pump prime the economy to get re-elected. I feel that the fourth year of the US Presidential cycle, which is also the election year of 2020, will not be good. Remember 2008? Then US president George Bush pumped the economy so much that it collapsed in 2008, and Obama had to rescue the country. 2012 coincided with the European Crisis and a stock correction. 2016 was a good year for the stock markets that just recovered from a correction in 2015. 2019 should be a good one for stocks. The correction we are seeing should be a mild one. How Do Stocks Perform During the Presidential Election Cycle? Let’s...

The correction that we have been waiting for has arrived. Those who missed out on the rally that started on Christmas Eve will have a chance to enter at January's levels. It will require "balls of steel". Lots of mindfulness meditation. Watch the show, "Billions". Bobby Axelrod meditates every morning for 16 to 20 minutes before he starts the day. This allows him to make calm decisions. Stocks will end the year higher.

We have been warning of this pull back of stock markets. Please do not read financial news to guide you. They will write stuff like “stocks plunge due to failure of trade talks”. It doesn’t matter. The rally from 24 Dec 18 to now is nearly 25% and it needs a pause. Anything can be a trigger: China trade talks collapse, black swan, earthquake. A pull back has to happen after such a long rally. Financial journalists, TV just like to find a reason for the rally or the crash. We have been advising clients to dollar cost average into equity funds like UBS China A Opportunity and First State Dividend Advantage. We never advised to do a lump sum. The rally for MSCI World since Christmas Eve was 22.9% and a retracement of half of this rally should be seen as a great reset of the clock to allow you to buy stocks cheaper. The retracement can be 11.5% in other words. We have been focusing on uncorrelated plays like H2O Multibonds, gold and silver. We will also be bringing in Feng He, a C...

Arsenal's decline since 2005 coincided with the winding down of previous owners looking for a big payout on exit, and the emergence of an American called Kroenke who's a money grabbing entrepreneur who has no passion for the club. The stadium debt was paid off aggressively when it could have been spread out longer. It was to boost the share price before the sale to Kroenke. After Kroenke put his grubby hands on the club, the budget shrank even further. The club stuck with Wenger for 10 years too long. we could see that it had stagnated. The final three seasons of Wenger's reign was particularly difficult to watch. Emery's reign put some life into the team. But the rot which set in for the last 10 seasons was difficult to reverse when the budget given was only £60m in the summer. We missed Aaron Ramsey. The decline of Arsenal's league form coincided with his injury. The midfield machine fell off. We missed a box to box, physical player who will put in tackles a...