Musings about Life and Investments

 https://www.ft.com/content/2d81120b-da42-4e3e-a165-8fc20f415cbd Rents are falling fast in major cities across the UK as a result of coronavirus, which has caused demand for properties from overseas workers, students, tourists and corporate travellers to plummet.  The falls are most pronounced in London, the city in the UK most exposed to the demand shock unleashed by the pandemic. But rents in Manchester, Birmingham, Edinburgh, Leeds and Reading have also tumbled in recent months, and are unlikely to rebound quickly, according to data from property portal Zoopla. In the 12 months to October, average rents in London fell 6.9 per cent; in Birmingham they slipped 3.2 per cent; in Reading 2.2 per cent and in Edinburgh 1.7 per cent. All cities in the analysis fell below their surrounding region, reflecting weak demand for accommodation closer to town centres.   Rents had continued to grow in Leeds and Manchester through much of the pandemic, but both dipped into negat...

  By the way, there is a huge shift / sector rotation out of “speculative tech” (companies that aren’t profitable) into cyclicals, defensives. One will never know when the stock markets will hit a bottom but it looks likely to have a “mini-capitulation” of another 10% for the S&P500 in late March before recovering sharply. Monetary policy is still very expansive, which long term is good for stocks. Remember, stock markets do not move up in a straight line. They go up and down, higher highs, higher lows. If you are worried by the daily fluctuations, zoom out from daily into weekly charts and you will see a bigger picture.   MSCI World ETF. Daily chart. Very noisy. You can see it is vaguely rising. 150 days and 200 days MA rising gently.       MSCI World ETF weekly chart. Looks less noisy. The trend looks up. Now we can see a pattern. 150 and 200 weeks rising. There were 2 chances to buy, in Nov – Dec 2018, when it briefly dipped below the MA. In Feb – Mar 202...

  Studies have shown that markets tend to trend. In the shorter term, 1 to 3 years, stocks tend to trend or have momentum. In the longer term, 3 to 5 years, they mean revert. It means that Tesla can rise from 100 to 1500 in 3 years. Thereafter, a company may exhibit slower growth, valuations too high and cause it to fall back to 800.   Best momentum over 1 week, 1 month and 3 months.   I’ve explored looking at the top performing funds over 1 week, 1 month and 3 months. This is to spot which sectors are the fastest growing:   Blackrock World Energy. The energy sector is rocketing. Up 8.5% over 1 week. This is cyclical sector Morgan Stanley Global Prop Fund / Invesco Global Real Estate Securities Fund. Up 4.1% and 3.4%. Real estate is recovering. This is cyclical. Robeco Capital Growth. US Select Opportunities Equities. Up 3.2%. This is tracking S&P500. Blackrock World Mining. Up 3%. This is cyclical. Robeco New World Financials. Up 1.9%. This is cyclical / disrupt...