Can The Stock Market Predict The US Elections?
This is an interesting piece of data. Since WWII, when the S&P500 fell in the three months leading up to the November vote during a presidential election year, the incumbent president or party of the outgoing president has lost the election 88% of the time. Similarly, when the S&P500 rises during that period, the incumbent or party of the outgoing president has won 82% of the time. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/01/investing/stock-market-joe-biden-donald-trump-election/index.html It is predicting a razor thin, Biden victory! The S&P500 fell 0.04% between July 31 and Oct 31. Now the lock down in England has begun, while the Covid Virus death and infection rates are at a new high. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ I will stick to “stay-at-home” stocks. I’m rubbing my hand with glee as many of the stocks that ran away after the April rally are now back below 50 days MA and nearly at 150 days ...