Musings about Life and Investments

I shared that there might be a Christmas Rally given how steep the stock markets sold down in Dec. There is likely to be a fierce bounce but I don’t think this is a trend reversal. Take the S&P500 for example. The sell down put the index in a negative territory. The rebound is likely the to be from 2468 to 2633 for S&P500. That’s circa 6.3% upside or more. It might push through the resistance at 2633 to fool retail investors into thinking that the good times are back. But there’s just far too many resistances along the way for the index to recover in a straight line. My view is that this video is worth watching, even if it’s for 17 minutes. Well worth your time than to watch a Korean Soap, or 17 minutes of a soccer game where your favourite team loses a lead and concedes the softest of goals. https://youtu.be/ZETc5ulyKRI

This is huge. Actually, it isn't. I contributed to the article back in March 2018. The signals never fail. I have now learned to predict bear markets at a lag time of a few months and a downside from peak at 10%. That means I usually get out 10% from the top, never at the top. That's good enough as long as the correction is over 20%, I have added value. The reason for the 20% correction to add value is I am also not able to predict the bottom of the market. Usually, i can only predict the start of a bull after it has risen 10% from the bottom. http://musingsonwallstreet.blogspot.com/2018/03/signal-for-major-correction-triggered.html I will personally share what I would do when speak one on one. Now is not a time for broadcast. I have also spotted certain opportunities even now, and I know they are opportunities because all the talking heads on TV haven't spoken about them. I think we could see a recession as early as 2020. I don't know. Stupid Trump blamed it ...

I don't have time to put out the charts. You can see from all my posts, that I've been bearish since March 2018. It was about 10% from January's peak that I called a big correction. On average, when it happens on monthly charts, the correction is over 20%, which means a technical bear is triggered. The S&P500 is down around 16%, MSCI Europe down 20%, MSCI Emerging Markets down 28%, Asia ex Japan MSCI down 25%. I still don't think the end is over. I believe there will be at least another 5% downside for S&P500, triggering the worst over bear market since 2011. Meanwhile, the US 3 year Treasury Yield > 5 years. In a way, the yield curve has inverted, although it is not the traditional 10 - 2. Nevertheless it means a slowdown of the US economy is underway. It may not be a recession in the sense of 2 consecutive quarters of year on year GDP growth. The yield curve makes sense because core inflation forces the Fed to hike rates. If inflation rates rise abo...

I have been recommending to go short on Europe, Asia and Emerging Markets since March 2018. Also, decided the time is ripe to go short on S&P500 on Sept. EUM has been up over 30% since March. EUM is inverse 2x Emerging Markets ETF. EPV up 25%. This is the inverse 2x MSCI Europe. SH is up 20%. This is inverse 2x S&P500. I was recently tempted to suggest a LONG for selective markets. Tencent, 700 HK rebounded around 30%. But i resisted the temptation to do so because the rebound upwards was too sharp and fast and I was sure it will retrace back from 340 back to 300. The low was 250 incidentally. Brazil ETF started to rebound strongly, so did Russia. I bought into HSBC Brazil Fund, and Baring Russia. But I decided to put it at half weight as the general brought indices across the four major markets are still indicating a SELL. Now I also saw cannabis stocks like Cronos shoot up 30% suddenly as they become subjects to takeover. Medicinal marijuana is a big thing now as it has...