Portfolio review for 3 Aug 2021


 

This is a review of the model portfolio I’ve constructed which started from 23 march 2021. It is up 17.6%. It has beaten Vanguard Global stocks ETF or a Global Equity Fund (10.32%), outperformed S&P500 (14% up), beaten HK tracker -5.4%. XIRR is 56.93%.

 

The purpose of doing this is multi-pronged. 1) I want to ensure that what I’ve said made sense and add value. 2) the only way I can ensure that I add value is to beat the index otherwise I should just buy the index. 3) I wish to better manage my portfolio. 4) I can give good advice to clients who can then make money investing. 5) I decipher the secrets of beating Wall street and 6) if I wish to set up a fund some day, I know what to do.

 


 

 

 


 

 

The key thing in beating the benchmark is to underweight China at the right time, and overweight at the right time, also to focus on sectors that will outperform. Stock picking plays a huge part and I focus exclusively on investing in stocks with a) a wide moat, b) stable or rising margins c) high revenue growth, d) lowly geared. The portfolio decoupled with China from May 2021 onwards as China began to slide. We replaced it with a lot of tech stocks. But from mid July onwards when China capitulated, I’ve cautiously add HK stocks like HK Exchange 388 HK. I’ve added some break out stocks like DOCU, TEAM and Moderna to counter the recent pull back of S&P500.


 


 

The weightage to US stocks remain at 87.3%, while HKD stocks is at around 7.6%. Standout performers were:

 

  1. Moderna up 92.15% (healthcare)
  2. Alphabet up 36.9% (tech)
  3. S&P Global up 30.2% (Financials)
  4. Veeva Systems up 21.4% (tech)
  5. ASML Holdings up 18.1% (tech)
  6. Adobe up 17.4% (Tech)

 

They were all listed in the US.



 

Worst performers were mainly HK listed Chinese tech companies:

  1. Tencent down 25.4% (tech)
  2. Shanghai Int Airport down 24.4% (transport)
  3. Ping An Insurance down 22.8% (financials)
  4. Meituan down 19.2% (tech)
  5. JD.com down 13.5% (Tech)

 



 

In the last 7 days, HK tracker rose 3.5%. Model Portfolio (MP) up 1.42%. VT up 0.41% and S&P500 up 0.03%. Going forward China / HK may start to outperform after the capitulation.

 


 


 

Worst performers last 7 days were not Chinese companies, but US stocks that were overstretched. I’ve picked up some of them as they fell to support levels.

  1. Clorox down 8.9% (consumer non discretionary)
  2. Amazon down 7.6% (e-commerce, tech)
  3. Booking down 6,3% (travel, tech, re-opening)
  4. Mercado Libre down 4.1% (e-commerce)
  5. Mastercard down 4%  (financials)

 

 



 

Last 30 days, top performers were mainly healthcare, tech and HK exchange.

 

  1. Moderna up 79.6% (vaccines, healthcare)
  2. TEAM up 26.8% (systems, tech)
  3. ASML up 16% (semicon, tech)
  4. Yum brands 14.9% (F&B)
  5. HK Exchange 13.7% (financials)

 

 



 

 

 

Worst performers were

  1. Meituan down 25.6% (tech)
  2. Shanghai Int down 18.0% (transport)
  3. Tencent down 17.6%
  4. CSOP Tech down 11.2%
  5. NIO down 10.3%



 

Significant Transactions in the last 2 weeks

 

  1. Turned long on Microstrategy as Bitcoin looks to have reversed.
  2. Capitaland China Trust (for yield, re-opening story)
  3. Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust (yield, re-opening story)
  4. Square (fast growing unicorn, just acquired AFTERPAY)
  5. Tesla (transport, fast growing, EV)
  6. Boeing (reopening)
  7. Facebook (social Media)
  8. Amazon
  9. Yum Brands (I may take some profit after the breakout, next few weeks, or sell call options)
  10. McDonalds
  11. DocuSign
  12. Atlassian Corp (TEAM)
  13. ASML (sold ¼)
  14. ASML Hldgs (sold ½)
  15. Applied Materials (sold ¼)

 


 


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